Thursday, October 30, 2008

John Doerr's Top 10 (or so) List

Forbes.com

By Elizabeth Corcoran 10.30.08, 9:09 AM ET

Burlingame, Calif. -

'Tis the season of fear and inspiration in Silicon Valley.

Earlier this month, leading venture investing firm Sequoia Capital shocked Silicon Valley by blasting its entrepreneurs with a slide show featuring a slaughtered pig and a dead clear message: the fun and games are over. The slides were almost instantly shared throughout the Valley.

Then, Oct. 28, other leading Silicon Valley investors, including the oracle John Doerr of Kleiner Perkins Byers and Caufield, offered tempered cautions--along with a twist of optimism. "The world has really changed," Doerr said, noting that public equities have plunged by 40% in the past month. But the epicenter of this crisis is not the technology world.

"We have a crisis of confidence--in government, in our money," said Doerr.

In the spirit of putting a calm hand on the start-up tiller, Doerr compiled 10 or so ideas for keeping businesses healthy during a downturn.

He presented the ideas at a forum convened by VentureBeat. Joining Doerr on stage were investors Ram Shriram, an early investor in Google; Matt Cohler, formerly at Facebook and now with Benchmark Capitol; Kittu Kolluri, a partner at New Enterprise Associates; and Ron Conway, a prolific early-stage investor.

Many of Doerr's principles amount to a head-clearing dose of common sense after a time of unbridled market enthusiasm. Act with speed, Doerr urged. Use a scalpel--not an ax--to protect a company's key assets. Have 18 months of cash--or more--available. Put off spending on capital equipment or facilities. (Google's online documents and spreadsheets are saving customers money, he noted.)

Reprioritize your research and development. Recognize that everything is negotiable, including big contracts such as your lease. Everyone in a company--from the receptionist to the engineers--should be selling your products. Offer equity instead of cash to anyone, from the landlord to other creditors.

Put your own cash into "safe" places. Doerr noted that he's been nudging firms to put money into Treasury-backed securities. Identify "leading indicators" that can give you a sense of how your business is going. And "overcommunicate" with your shareholders and employees about how the market and company are doing.

The other panelists chimed in: Avoid long-term spending commitments, urged Cohler. Renegotiate your building's lease, Conway reiterated. Use equity, not cash, added Shiriam. NEA's Kolluri said he expects to see consumers flock to brands they trust.

Conway added that the companies he's supporting have tightened their spending. In the year 2000, the average burn rate for one of Conway's investments was $750,000 a month. Now his portfolio companies have trimmed their costs to a svelte $200,000 monthly, he asserts.

And he still sees the same number of proposals from entrepreneurs that he did six months ago. "There's a lot of cash and a lot of great ideas out there," concurred Conway. "Innovation isn't slowing."

http://www.forbes.com/2008/10/30/investors-doerr-sequoia-tech-personal-cx_ec_1030doerr.html

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Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Egg-Citing Votes

Forbes.com

By Elizabeth Corcoran
October 29, 2008
Forbes.com
The votes in the Forbes-Instructables contest are in! And the winner is...



Burlingame, Calif. -

Even the Czar would have been pleased.

Forbes.com and Instructables received a bounty of 89 fabulous designs in our recent contest to build a Fabergé-styled egg. The possibilities were awe-inspiring. The winner was breathtaking.

First a note on our contest: Open to all comers, we asked only that you channel the master craftsman Peter Carl Fabergé for your inspiration. The original collection of 89 entries was stunning. (See "Egg-citing Fabergé-Like Inventions.")

In Pictures: When The Egg Comes Before The Chicken

In Pictures: Egg-Citing Winners

Everyone was encouraged to help us narrow down the contestants to 20 finalists by voting online. Among the finalists: a wedding cake topper made in an egg, complete with bride and groom figurines; a large Rhea egg covered with tiny pearls and crystals; a wasp and grass resin egg on a rose stand; a Star Wars themed egg; and even an "electric ovaloid," because, as its designer warned, "In the future, the chickens are all dead." (For the full collection, click here.)

Fabergé was famous for including a "surprise" inside each of his eggs. Finalist Nicolás Jara, 23, based in Santiago, Chile, lived up to that challenge admirably with his very first egg creation, a tiny globe nestled inside a chicken egg. He shared with us the secrets of his egg design.

We turned the task of making the final excruciating choices to an elite team, which included Forbes Vice Chairman Christopher Forbes (co-author of Fabergé: The Forbes Collection), Forbes Curatorial Chief Margaret Trombly Kelly, Forbes art director and jewelry designer Ronda Kass and savvy eggheads from the Instructables team. The five runners-up will receive a copy of Toby Faber's new book, Fabergé's Eggs: The Extraordinary Story of the Masterpieces that Outlived an Empire.

Much like the original Fabergé eggs, every one of these eggs has a delightful story. For instance, runner-up Brian K. Baity, a trained metrologist, was inspired by his love of antique woodwork and statuary to carve an intricate lattice design in an emu egg using paragraving tools.

"The most difficult part of this carving is removing the dark outer layers while keeping the 1/32-inch white layer intact," reports Baity, who has created fewer than 40 pieces.

Meilie Moy-Hodnett also loves working with wood. "I imagined an egg filled with amber, containing extinct life forms in the natural voids of the Banksia pod," writes Moy-Hodnett. The truly heart-stopping moment: When a sander pulled the egg from her grip and it bounced across a concrete floor. Thankfully, all was safe. The egg and base are designed to adorn a cane shaft, as she believes good art should be functional as well as promote expression.

Anna Yudovin, a computer programmer who lives in Winchester, Va., created a world inside an emu egg, using reindeer moss, twigs and other materials. She first spotted reindeer moss around the time the Fabergé contest was launched. "I was fascinated by its resemblance to an aerial view of a forest--trees by a still lake," she writes, and so "hatched the idea of nesting a miniature world inside an egg." This was the first diorama and the first egg Yudovin had ever tried to make. Along with learning as she was making her egg, the biggest challenge was painting a compelling Trompe-l'oeil background.

Michael L. Bear created a richly colored red egg with illuminated stained glass inside and a tiny figure with a king-of-the-sea motif. Bear recalls seeing a Fabergé Egg exhibition about 10 years ago in Cleveland. "I was blown away by the Coronation Egg, which was the primary inspiration for this egg," writes Bear. "The most difficult part of the project was getting the stained glass to fit properly in the egg."

The winner, Patricia Harding, is a professional artist who specializes in using egg shells. Taking a cue from Fabergé's "Renaissance Egg," Harding created a monumental work by bedecking an ostrich egg with opals.

"I, like other egg artists, am inspired by the beautiful creations of Fabergé, to take a perfect egg, simple in form, to create a beautiful art piece," she writes. Harding is a veteran to the world of egg art. She is the first person in the world to be certified as a master in each of the nine categories of egg art recognized by the International Egg Art Guild and so earned the title of "Grand Master of Egg Art."

She is as generous in her praise of the other contestants as she is talented. Her version of the Renaissance Egg proudly wears 72 opals, all similar in color. Matching the opals was the greatest challenge behind this work, she says.

Harding wins a Sonos Multi-Room Music System worth $999.

Thank you to all who shared their astounding creations with us. The four runners-up and the winner of the Forbes-Instructables contest, will be on display in the Forbes Gallery, located on 60 Fifth Ave., New York, from Nov. 12 to Nov. 29. The gallery is free of charge to the public.

In Pictures: When The Egg Comes Before The Chicken

In Pictures: Egg-Citing Winners

See Also:

Egg-citing Fabergé-Like Inventions

Inventing the Future


http://www.forbes.com/2008/10/29/innovation-faberge-contest-tech-personal-cx_ec_1029egg.html


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Friday, October 17, 2008

Intel Inside--Classroom

Forbes.com

By Elizabeth Corcoran, 10.17.08, 05:43 PM EDT

The chip company is pursing a classic, long-term strategy by investing the minds of the world's young.

Brenda Musilli is just the sort of no-nonsense executive who has helped build Intel Corp. into the world's largest computer chip company. A 30-year Intel veteran, she's done stints in marketing, finance and other corners of the corporation.

And she has a swift no-nonsense answer if you ask her what will be one of the themes at Intel as the company works its way through the current global economic crisis: It's got to keep up its support for education both in the U.S. and abroad.

"These kinds of investments are about remaining competitive as a company," says Musilli, president of the not-for-profit Intel Foundation, which was founded in 1988 and devotes more than half its resources to supporting education efforts in the U.S. and overseas.

Yet even the best-intentioned programs in education face some thorny challenges. On the top of the list: high-technology companies figure their future workers will need a complex set of skills that go far beyond the classic reading, writing and 'rithmatic. But U.S. public schools are still wrestling with how to deliver even those basic requirements--and under the Bush Administration, they face severe penalties if they do not raise their standardized test scores in those subjects. The concern within educational circles is that schools are becoming obsessed with test-taking at the expense of teaching more flexible critical thinking skills.

Those pressures are likely to become even more extreme as school budgets grow more pinched in a chilling economy.

Musilli points out that Intel has supported education since its days as a start-up and that its leaders--starting with Chairman Craig Barrett and Chief Executive Paul Otellini--are deeply supportive of education initiatives.

See "Intel's Chairman On Innovation."

About 10 years ago, Intel dramatically stepped up its education programs. It now values its annual support for education programs supporting math, science and technology at $100 million, a combination of cash grants, equipment and services. (Although we only published the top 10, Intel would have ranked 13 on our list of the most generous corporations in terms of total cash donations.)

When Intel went through layoffs in 2006, the foundation scrutinized its programs, too. "We looked at how we could scale more efficiently and at which programs were getting the biggest impact," Musilli recalls. But the $100 million commitment--about 1% of its fiscal 2007 operating income of $8.2 billion--stayed steady, she says.

That support goes into a host of education programs, both ones aimed at grabbing headline attention and ones providing more subtle backstage efforts.

In 1999, Intel took over the grandfather of all science fairs--the now 66-year-old "Science Talent Search" contest, which attracts something like 1,600 entries each year from U.S. high school students and a similar program internationally that attracts another 65,000 students around the world. The programs aim to make student scientists into heroes--a sort of "American Idol" for the geek set. The financial awards are significant, too: The winner gets a $100,000 scholarship and, each year, the top 40 U.S. winners split prizes that together are worth $1.25 million.

Additionally, Intel annually awards prizes to schools that demonstrate strong science and math programs. In September, Intel lauded Sojourner Elementary School, a 170-student magnet elementary school in Milwaukie, Ore., as a "star innovator." (Sojourner will share cash and prizes worth about $1 million with five other finalist schools.)

There are also fun programs, such as a constellation of more than 100 "computer clubhouses" that Intel sponsors around the world. (Two-thirds of those are in the U.S.)

But Intel's also counting on its behind-the-scenes efforts to pay big future returns. Since 1999, it has offered workshops on how to use technology in the classroom for teachers of grades K through 12. Originally, then-Chief Executive Barrett set a goal of training "100,000 teachers in 1,000 days."

But no company understands how to scale projects better than the computer chip giant. By developing workshops that train senior trainers to teach "master" teachers, who then convey those lessons back to teachers at local schools, Intel estimates that its program has now touched 5.5 million teachers in 40 countries.

"We don't charge for it; it's not for sale," notes Stephen Andrews, the U.S. manager for the Intel Teach program. The programs are technology "agnostic." "We provide the professional development that teachers need, no matter if they're using Macintosh computers or PCs. It's all about the subjects and [grade-levels]," Andrews says. Local school districts have to put support into the programs, too, by giving teachers time off to take the programs and encouraging technology use.

But then there are those standardized tests.

Driven by the Bush Administration's No Child Left Behind program, which demands increases in test scores at the risk of withholding funding, schools have become obsessed with tests, even spending scarce funds and school hours to practice test taking and working on skills such as "bubbling"--properly coloring circles on multiple choice tests forms.

By contrast, high-technology companies are strong advocates of developing what they call "21st century skills," namely the skills and knowledge that they feel will be needed in the coming years. These involve improved communicating and thinking skills, problem solving skills, creativity and "self-direction" skills.

Intel tries to dance between those two demands, using its funding to help schools with the basics while steadily emphasizing the skills that its executives feel will be essential in the future. It has poured significant efforts into coming up with its own metrics for grading the success of its programs, contracting with outside organizations to assess and monitor its programs. "We believe the metrics and evaluation of the program are critically important," Musilli says.

Intel's assessors look at whether teachers who have gone through its workshops are working more collaboratively with other teachers, using technology to advance the curriculum in interesting ways and are engaging the minds of their students.

"But no, it's not directly correlated to test scores," Musilli concedes. "If you believe the research that talks about why the 21st century skills are so important, then one would hope those skills would lead to improved test scores," she says.

And that classic, long-term investment strategy may be one of Intel's greatest gifts to U.S. schools.

http://www.forbes.com/2008/10/17/intel-foundation-education-tech-corprespons08-cx_ec_1017intel.html

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Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Making Future Headlines

Forbes.com

by Elizabeth Corcoran, 08.13.08, 06:00 PM EDT
Forbes Magazine dated September 01, 2008

Dale Dougherty and Tim O'Reilly are the Thomas Paines of the DIY revolution.

O'Reilly Dougherty


If the do-it-yourself trend is a revolution, then Dale Dougherty (above, left) and Tim O'Reilly (right) are its Tom Paines.

Their three-year-old quarterly magazine, Make, is the DIY manifesto, urging readers to unleash their creativity with little more than a screwdriver and a soldering iron. Want an electric guitar? Start with a cigar box. Need an aerial picture of your house? Try rigging a camera to a kite.

The playfulness of Make, however, disguises a provocative and potentially disruptive trend: giving individuals the power to change hardware just like they do software. "Why can't I do to my car what I do to my computer?" asks Dougherty, Make's publisher.

"We're seeing the collision of computing and 'stuff,'" adds O'Reilly, who is widely seen as a digital age prophet. "It's telling us something about the shape of the future. It's a bellwether." (To see our pick of techno-wizards, check out "In Pictures: Eight People Inventing The Future.")

Neither O'Reilly, 54, nor Dougherty, 53, is an engineer. O'Reilly majored in classics at Harvard University; Dougherty was an English major. "I make books," declares Dougherty.

But they're awfully good at spotting trends. As the software industry began to gel in the mid-1980s, they wrote computer manuals, hawking their soft-cover books at conferences. The collaboration grew into a small trade press house now called O'Reilly Media. Their books became travel guides through the rough landscape of computerese: Perl, Python, JavaScript and the Internet itself. These were books for people-in-the-know, the antithesis of "Dummy" guides.

The books positioned O'Reilly and Dougherty at the front of every technical trend. "We didn't get to sell books; we sold a movement," says O'Reilly, who became the leading evangelist and public face of the company, now based in Sebastapol, Calif., a 90-minute drive north of San Francisco.

As the Internet was unleashed from government and university labs in the early 1990s, O'Reilly and Dougherty rode the waves, publishing the influential, if optimistically named, Whole Internet User's Guide. (It's now out of print.) They created one of the first Web portals, the Global Network Navigator, which cataloged sprouting Web sites. (AOL snapped it up.) Their business grew to $70 million in revenue by 2001, then crumpled by almost 30% when the dot-com bubble burst.

But once again, they spotted the first bump of the next wave. In 2004, the pair hosted a conference on open-source software. Dougherty dubbed the efforts "Web 2.0," suggesting technologies that turned the Internet from a place that displayed content into an active tool shop of programs that mashed together information (maps meet numbers such as sales data spreadsheets and tallies of fishing hauls). Web 2.0 has become a dominant trend in enterprise computing.

O'Reilly Media now runs about 18 conferences each year, including a delightful science program, "Science Foo Camp." These are serious alpha-geek gatherings--and they have helped the company, as of last year, reach $76 million in revenue (see "Back To Silicon Valley's Future").

It was Dougherty that, a few years back, started drawing connections between a different set of distant dots: the profusion of powerful, cheap electronics; a deft software hacking community; crafting as popularized by Martha Stewart; and the growing green--or recycling--rage. "Dale had the genius to say 'These are part of the same movement,'" O'Reilly says.

Make debuted in 2005, part book, part magazine, evoking the techno-enthusiasm of the 1950s with a splash of new-age punk. Rather than writing about people who invent, Make is a recipe book of invention. Dougherty scoured the Web to find people inventing gadgets and invited them to describe, step by step, how they did it.

It was a quick success and now has a paid circulation of 120,000. Next step: inviting all those enthusiasts together. This year's "Maker Faire" held in San Mateo, Calif., drew a crowd of 65,000, up from 20,000 in 2006. Austin, Boston, Chicago and New York are on the short list for future Maker Faires. In January, Twin Cities Public Television will debut a weekly Make television show.

O'Reilly is also selling kits to help jump-start wannabe DIYers--much like the old Heathkit models so many older engineers used as kids. They come wrapped in retro brown Kraft paper and include projects like the $15 "Make a Blinkybug," an electronic gizmo with LED eyes and sensors, or the MintyBoost USB Charger Kit ($20) that turns an old Altoids tin into an iPod charger. The kits are a decent business for O'Reilly, pulling in about $1 million a year.

The company is also putting money on the line by seeding some venture companies. The investments are tiny by Sand Hill Road standards; O'Reilly raised money from limited partners to create an investment fund of $52 million. Individual investments are $500,000 to $1 million apiece. So far, O'Reilly's sunk money into 10 start-ups, including wifi device maker Chumby and travel site TripIt.

"Our mission is to amplify what's already happening," O'Reilly says--the Web circa 1992 or the early days of Web 2.0 all over again. Hardware, or "stuff," is becoming as customizable as software. It seems like fun and toys now, O'Reilly and Dougherty say, but here's their prediction: from the hobbyists will spring new technologies, ideas for companies, and, ultimately, a new industry.

http://www.forbes.com/2008/08/13/diy-innovation-oreilly-tech-egang08-cx_ec_0813oreilly.html

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Monday, June 23, 2008

Bill Gates Unfiltered

Forbes.com

by Elizabeth Corcoran
June 23, 2008
Forbes.com
Gates reflects on innovation, Microsoft's contributions and what he's doing in his spare time.





Q&A
Bill Gates Unfiltered
Elizabeth Corcoran, 06.23.08, 6:00 PM ET

Burlingame, Calif. -

Beginning in July, Bill Gates will switch jobs for the first time in his adult life, stepping out of a full-time job at Microsoft and moving over to philanthropy. The whole world is a far different place for what he and Microsoft did.

At the heart of the high-tech industry is innovation. So when Forbes.com talked with Gates last week, we asked him about innovation, the industry and what he's doing in his spare time.

Forbes: What's been Microsoft's biggest innovation?

Gates: The most innovative thing in our industry was the idea of creating a software industry around the personal computer. You had the platform of the personal computer, and that spurred the desire for more applications, and that drove the need for more computers.

That doesn't downplay the fact that then we did DOS, then we did Office and then we did all these other things. But that vision of the importance of software, and the kind of evangelization we did when there was no industry--to draw people in and to get that cycle going--it will be hard to ever top that because of what it led to.

What have been the three top contributions of Microsoft Research?

I really can't pick any three because it's so broad. There isn't a single thing that we ship that isn't deeply connected to Microsoft Research. Take Microsoft Office, the way we built e-mail. In Office alone there are probably two dozen features where Microsoft Research was key to getting it done. How we render fog and rain and grass and texture in the Xbox was a huge Microsoft Research advance.

If you go to the big graphics conferences, such as SIGGRAPH or conferences on search, you'll see what a huge presence, by far, Microsoft Research is. In part, that's because we have a competitor who doesn't share any of their research. But what you see at those conferences is all of the great work they get to pick from.

Most places that you think of as big in R&D are more famous for what they didn't do than for what they did. We really have cracked the code on researchers wanting to get their stuff into products.

But at the top of the list?

I guess I'd put search at the top of the list, although you might think that was unusual because our product isn't the No. 1 draw product at this point. But drawing on the brilliant work on research is what's allowed us to do amazing things.

SQL Server is another great example. Office is a great example. Windows, on the security side. Whenever we have problems, we sit with Microsoft researchers and brainstorm or challenge them to dive into it.

We certainly have things that are the best--in maps, images and search results. But there's far more innovations that we're going to pour into [search] ... as part of our quest to gain market share

How much is search going to change?

Search is really in its early days. Links aren't related to what you really want to do. If you're trying to organize a trip, software can do much better than just bring you back 10 blue links. Today the software doesn't really understand what you're doing, and nobody gets paid for turning out links. ... It's just a tactic, not an overall vision, which is more about information at your fingertips.

Doing search inside a company where you use [Microsoft] SharePoint type search is much better. We understand the structure of who's who and how they're related to one another. The information is inherently structured. So understanding structure is part of how we move search forward.

Lots of research groups invented ideas that made others rich. Are the rewards for innovation direct--or indirect?

We very directly had the idea of a personal computer and the software industry around that. In fact, people said Paul [Allen] and I were kind of stupid at the time. So yes, you've got to build a company and deliver a product and prove it, but I'd say that yes, we were very well rewarded for that innovation.

The personal computer has been the foundation for many more innovations. So a company has to do more than just have the idea--you've got to get it out there at a low price, let people know you've got it, support it. So the history of Microsoft is about bringing all those things together, even though Microsoft's core has always been about innovation and software.

Are there different types of innovation?

People are a little narrow when they think about innovation. They don't think about constant innovation. Think about Microsoft Office and what it is today versus five years ago or 10 years ago or 15. It's easy to overlook that kind of constant improvement innovation.

When talking about innovation, there's a tendency to look for discontinuities. Those are valuable. Look at the graphical user interface and bringing graphics onto the PC. That was a discontinuity. We certainly benefited immensely from betting on that, in innovating on that in a way that our competitors at the time chose not to.

What's been the most innovative period in technology history?

The key big breakthroughs in the next decade--visual recognition, speech recognition, the ability to browse information in an unstructured way, the intelligent office where your white board lets you navigate your information and teleconference people in--those things will be based on work that we've been doing--and that universities have been doing--for more than 15 years.

The really big things take time. The day they come out when you start to use speech and an intelligent white board, you'll say, "What an innovative year!" But, in fact, it was an innovative 15 years that led to the magic price points, the quality and usability, and all those things.

What proposals came across your desk that you passed on and wish that you hadn't?

I've probably had to make fewer choices not to do research than anyone else you'll ever talk to. Microsoft was about software. Because of our success, anything related to software we were able to do--whether in security breakthroughs or speech or vision. I'd feel very bad if we didn't have the success level that would let us do all those things.

You could say we should have waited three years to do interactive TV. Or, "You should have gotten going on this search stuff three years before you did it." So you might reorder some things.

But we have a deep optimism about software and the willingness to fund things that would take more than a decade to see fruition. Just look at many of the projects in Microsoft Research, starting with natural language understanding. The mainstream way we interact with a computer these days is still mouse and keyboard. But we're on the verge of putting natural language understanding into many of these. Take Microsoft Surface, which is out in some locations. That uses visual recognition software.

You have to decide how much to put into each of the bets. When do you bet the company on graphical user interface, like we did with Windows? When do you bet on Office and the intelligent white board? If you're too early, you spent a little more on your research budget than you needed to. That's OK. If you get those bets wrong, you face a real challenge. But in this industry, the bigger problem is not doing the research at all.

Is the intelligent white board a ''bet the company'' kind of decision?

It's hard to call anything a 'bet the company' thing at this point--that is, if it doesn't succeed, the whole fate of the company is tied up in it. I would say that the strongest position Microsoft has--and the idea that we come to work thinking about every day--is how we make workers more productive.

How will you do that?

So the idea is, How can you do better sales analysis or personnel review or competitive analysis or see what you're customers are thinking? We think you will want to use a display where your whole desk is a display--or your white board will be a display. A camera will see the gestures you're making. Your office is evolving, and so we want to use Microsoft Office and SharePoint Exchange and other tools to dramatically drive a dramatic increase in worker productivity. That's about as core an idea as there is to Microsoft.

Driving office productivity doesn't get much attention these days because there aren't many people in the industry thinking about breakthroughs on behalf of office workers and how they'll deal with all the information across all their devices--the phone, the white board, the PC, the desk that will be a screen itself. But overall breakthroughs in the office, that's a very core thing for us.

What are you reading these days?

I read a lot. Recently, Theodore White's In Search of the Presidency. I read Who's Teaching Your Children? That was super-good. And all these disease books.

Is it OK not to be the richest man anymore?

Sure. I gave $36 billion to my foundation. That's how I did it, right? So obviously, I don't care.

You're taking some classes online?

I love the lectures that are showing up for free online--and some you can buy commercially at www.Teach12.com. Some of these lectures are incredible, very high quality.

You want to watch a great one? Watch ''Big History,'' that's a Teach12 one. There's one on the history of language. They have biology. There are two geology courses that are mind-blowingly good. In terms of the free stuff, MIT has physics classes that are very well known by [Walter] Lewin, and [Eric] Lander on biology. And there's a chemistry course by Don Satterway that is very, very good.

And what's your prediction about a new device we'll be using 10 years from now?

The student tablet, where you don't have any more textbooks. Interactive information, and you're collaborating in a new way. That's one that I'm very passionate about. The pieces are all falling into place for that one. It won't be the only reading device, but it will be an important one.

What should the next U.S. president do to keep the country competitive and innovative?

I tend to think more about improving the entire world as opposed to relative positions. Otherwise, you could say, "Hey, World War II was great because the U.S. was in its strongest relative position when that was over."

A lot of key choices have to do with science policy that has benefits that extend beyond four or eight years. Picking the right policies to promote energy innovation and other scientific innovation are very key things.


http://www.forbes.com/2008/06/23/gates-technology-innovation-microsoft-gates08-cx_ec_0623gates.html

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Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Apple Buys Chip Designer

Forbes.com

by Erika Brown, Elizabeth Corcoran and Brian Caulfield 04.23.08, 12:15 AM ET
BURLINGAME, CALIF. -

Late Tuesday, in response to questions from Forbes.com, an Apple spokesman said Apple has agreed to buy a boutique microprocessor design company called PA Semi. The company, which is known for its design of sophisticated, low-power chips, could spell a new future for Apple's flagship iPhone, and possibly iPod products as well.


The 150-person chip company, P.A. Semi, was founded in 2003 by Dan Dobberpuhl, who was a lead designer for the well-regarded Alpha and StrongARM microprocessors developed by Digital Equipment in the 1990s.

"Apple buys smaller technology companies from time to time, and we generally do not comment on our purposes and plans," said Apple spokesman Steve Dowling. He declined to comment on the value of the deal, which a person familiar with the deal suggested was done for $278 million in cash. Apple is due to announce its quarterly earnings Wednesday.

The decision to center the iPhone design around a chip that Apple could own marks a significant strategic choice by Apple Chief Executive Steve Jobs, and is aimed at ensuring Apple can continue to differentiate its flagship phone as a raft of competitors flood the market. According to a source affiliated with the chip company, Jobs and Senior Vice President Tony Fadell led the tiny group of executives who spearheaded the acquisition, which included negotiations that took place in Jobs' home.

Apple's choice is a blow for chip maker Intel, which has been trying to convince Cupertino, Calif.-based Apple to rely on Intel's chips--particularly its latest low-power line up, called Atom.

Apple has been rightfully proud of the iPhone, and has predicted that it will sell 10 million of the devices by the end of 2008. But that success has had a cost, too: Virtually every mobile-phone maker is scrambling to develop an iPhone-like device. Jobs has long asserted that Apple's greatest strengths lay in its software and in its ability to integrate hardware and software. The result: Machines that combine appealing design with an intuitive user interface, such as the iPhone. But interfaces--as Jobs well knows--can be mirrored, if not copied.

Few in the high-tech world are as wary as Jobs of turning control of core components over to a partner. The PC industry has been his proving ground; over the past three decades, he has watched numerous PC makers that have built their products around Intel's microprocessors wind up in fierce battles for narrower and narrower profit margins.

Led by Intel Chief Executive Paul Otellini, Intel is developing a line of chips that it believes can become as central to handheld computing devices as its "x86" chips have been to the personal computer industry. Intel has said it aims to create somewhat different lines of Atom processors tailored to different classes of applications, such as consumer devices, low-cost notebook computers and set-top boxes. The first of these designs is slated to begin shipping by the middle of this year; another by year's end.

But that doesn't mean Intel wants to create a unique chip for every customer--even for a charismatic customer like Apple.

Apple first got to know the designers at P.A. Semi about three years ago, when the computer maker still used PowerPC chips in its Macintosh computers. Dobberpuhl and his team, which includes engineers who had a hand in designing powerful chips, including Intel's Itanium, Advanced Micro Devices' Operton and Sun Microsystems' UltraSparc. Dobberpuhl was also the lead designer on a DEC chip project called StrongARM, which was ultimately folded into Intel after DEC collapsed. Intel tried to use the design as the basis of chips for the smart-phone industry, but eventually sold that group to Marvell.

Dobberpuhl wanted to design an enormously powerful chip, based on the PowerPC architecture, that used little power. When Apple decided to quit using the PowerPC chip in favor of Intel microprocessors, the conversations with P.A. Semi petered out.

In February 2007, P.A. Semi debuted a 64-bit dual core microprocessor which the company asserted was 300% more efficient than any comparable chips. It consumes only 5 to 13 watts running at 2 gigahertz. Telecommunications, networking and wireless companies embraced P.A. Semi's work.

Meanwhile, Apple found a collection of other chip partners to build the guts of its iPhone. One key: According to technology market research firm iSuppli, South Korean electronics giant Samsung supplies the iPhone's applications processor. Like a number of companies cranking out processors for mobile phones, such as Texas Instruments, Samsung's processor is based on a design licensed from Cambridge, U.K.-based ARM. Apple was among the three companies, also including Acorn Computers and VLSI Technology, that formed ARM in 1990.

Texas Instruments, Qualcomm and Broadcom are also fighting for share in the low-power applications processors for smart phones and mobile gizmos based on ARM designs, according to iSuppli analyst Tina Teng, with Texas Instruments leading the pack. These companies are building increasingly sophisticated processors, however, targeted at bigger and more powerful devices. "Companies like Qualcomm are trying to diversify themselves and move away from being a pure wireless company into these ultra mobile PCs, or ultra mobile Internet devices," Teng says.

Trevor Yancey, vice president of technology at IC Insights of Scottsdale, Ariz., sees ARM-based designs giving Intel a tough fight as Intel tries to push beyond notebooks and into smaller and smaller devices. "That's going to be a tough battle. If you look at the ARM core--where it has been and where it has come from--the ARM core is very well entrenched in those kinds of applications," Yancey said. "I think the gap between the two is certainly closing, but ARM is still developing at a fast pace."

Although no current Apple products use P.A. Semi chips, Apple executives kept a close eye on the work of the start-up. Talks of acquiring P.A. Semi began only in the past few weeks. Employees have been notified of the deal.

It will likely take at least a year before products incorporating P.A. Semi designs are ready. The company's flagship chip is at the heart of heavy-duty computing systems, such as those sold by NEC's storage division. But the design philosophy--hefty processing power and frugal power use--are in concert with Apple's directions. Although Apple plans to continue supporting P.A. Semi's current customers, insiders suggest that Jobs plans to use future P.A. Semi chips exclusively within Apple products.

At that point, executives believe the company will have created a unique asset--a powerful microprocessor that sips power lightly and so can support just about any imaginable applications Apple's software gurus can imagine.


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Friday, April 18, 2008

Necessities We Can Do Without


Forbes.com


Burlingame, Calif. -Charles Darwin would have had a field day with today's technology.

When he touched down in the Galapagos Islands in September 1835, Darwin scooped up a menagerie of finches, iguanas, rocks, plants and such. His data gathering was quick and dirty: He spent only nine days stuffing his crates with Galapagos samples and neglected to label them precisely. But he wound up with a powerful idea: Any species could mutate and evolve in response to their environmental conditions. Within the past few decades, other scientists have painstakingly documented how changing levels of food, water and other elements could cause finches to mutate in just a generation or two.

Technology, by contrast, mutates even more quickly, and we're adapting right along with it. The things we couldn't live or work without only a few years ago are now only valuable for their scrap metal. And get ready for more change. Think your laptop is essential? Guess again. Chances are that before long, you'll be tempted to give up that five-pounder for a nifty ultra-mini PC that slides into a satchel or your purse

In Pictures: 12 Necessities We Can Do Without

The managers of Xerox's famed Xerox Palo Alto Research Center back in the 1970s were among the first to articulate what brought about spurts of innovation and change in technology: Pick the biggest "resource constraint"--or the most expensive component in a system--and imagine what would happen if that became virtually free. Once upon a time, transistors cost at least a few pennies apiece. Now Intel stuffs close to a trillion transistors onto a chip that sells for only a few hundred dollars. Remember when long-distance telephone calls were expensive? Voice-over-Internet Protocol has made those chats free too.

Those kinds of innovations have meant that the gear once considered essential can be scrapped. Ready to say goodbye to your old desk phone? Even your answering machine, once an absolutely essential element of modern life, is giving way to services that companies administer in the computing "cloud"--meaning that companies are willing to store your information in enormous computer farms that you'll never see and serve it up just when you need it.

Instead of paying for a word processing system, Google Docs will let you write files and save them into the great Google cloud, where you can collect them later or send them to others. Google has even added software that lets you synchronize your Google Docs on your laptop so that you can use them in places where a network doesn't yet reach--say, on a plane.

Semiconductors continue to stuff more electronics--and thus, more processing power--onto their chips. That means that the overall devices themselves can shrink. Apple's latest generations of iPods, for instance, can be even slimmer than the original because the company no longer needs to use even a tiny disk drive but can instead stuff all those digital songs and pictures into semiconductor chips.

Novel software applications can also help cut down on the number of devices that you need, or at least, that you need to manage. Many people who carry around a cellphone haven't quite given up their office phone or even their home phone. That means technology hasn't simplified their lives; it's just multiplied the number of machines they need to answer or check for messages. Here's where software can come in: The founders of GrandCentral, a Freemont, Calif.-based start-up that was acquired by Google in 2007, created a service that redirects calls from multiple phones to a single number. No matter which of your many numbers someone calls, the calls are redirected to one number. That means you only have to worry about one phone number--and one voice mail.

Other companies are trying to apply that kind of shrink mentality to software too. For instance, to find the location of a local coffee shop, you can go to your PC, pull up your Web browser, and in a half-dozen clicks or so on a search engine, you can find a nearby coffee shop. (It helps, of course, to know your own location.)

Mike McCue, who runs Mountain View, Calif.-based TellMe, now a division of Microsoft, thinks that's too many clicks. Instead, TellMe has been developing voice recognition software that uses global positioning technology to find locations. Here's how it works: Call TellMe and ask for a Starbucks. The service starts by figuring out where you are. Then it searches Web directories for what you want. Finally, it gives you a list and a map of the nearest Starbucks. No clicks involved.

From McCue's point of view, devices should have just one button--and no stacks of menus that you have page through. "You say what you want, and we'll get the information you need," McCue says.

And that's how you really reduce the number of gadgets that you once thought that you needed.

In Pictures: 12 Necessities We Can Do Without

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Wednesday, April 09, 2008

Yahoo!'s Striptease

Forbes.com

BURLINGAME, CALIF. -
Will it be Google or AOL? Yahoo! executives are willing to team up with competitors to craft a new future for their company--provided those competitors don't include Microsoft. But Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer still has a card to play: He's enlisted the support of Rupert Murdoch to create a partnership that would involve combining Yahoo!, Microsoft's MSN and News Corp. social-networking site MySpace.

The news marks a surprising twist in the 2-month-old acquisition saga. What's clear: Yahoo! will soon be a different company. But precisely which industry leaders will become its partners is still very much up for debate.

On Wednesday afternoon, Yahoo! issued a terse announcement that it was launching a two-week "trial advertising" partnership with Google. The arrangement is a clever way of testing two separate ideas: the financial implications of letting Google's powerful ad-serving engine take over Yahoo!'s search ads, and just how politically explosive a deal between Yahoo! and Google might be. (See: "Yahoo! Gets In Bed With Google")

That news was followed by reports that Yahoo! may also be close to striking an arrangement that would combine the search engine company with AOL, the struggling Internet division of Time Warner.

Industry pundits believe Yahoo!'s latest moves will help preserve--and even increase--its perceived share value in the face of bluster from Microsoft that it could lower its bid from the $31 per share it offered for the company Feb. 1.

In after-hours trading, shares in Yahoo! and Microsoft moved a few pennies: Yahoo! edged down by 3 cents to $27.77; Microsoft fell 18 cents to $28.71. Google rose $1.81 to $464.19.

Since Microsoft made its bid, Yahoo! executives have been considering a dizzying array of relationships with a slew of potential alternative partners to avoid a takeover: News Corp., Time Warner, AOL, Google.

Ballmer hasn't been twiddling his thumbs, either. He has reached out to News Corp., according to industry sources familiar with the companies.

Although Yahoo! has staunchly asserted it is worth more than the $31 a share cash-and-stock offer made by Microsoft, Ballmer has been reluctant to sweeten the deal. Paying more than $40 billion for Yahoo! would already send Microsoft to the credit markets to borrow money. Crafting a deal with News Corp. could lighten that financial burden as well as add the nice touch of a vibrant social-networking site, namely MySpace.

In February, Murdoch asserted he wasn't interested in acquiring Yahoo! But he didn't rule out partnering with Microsoft.

Spokespeople for the companies declined to comment.

None of this was quite what Ballmer expected would unfold when Microsoft launched its bid for Yahoo! on Feb. 1. Ballmer had hoped to quickly lock down a deal with a company that seemed adrift. However, he didn't seem to factor in the fierce antagonism that Microsoft still sparks in Silicon Valley, particularly among industry veterans including Yang and Google's chief executive, Eric Schmidt.

Microsoft executives consulted with former Hewlett-Packard executives who had led the integration of HP and Compaq for advice on how to orchestrate a clean deal. Start talking right away with managers, counseled the HP veterans. The countdown to carrying out a smooth merger starts from the time the deal is announced--not just from the time it is formally approved.

But Yahoo! executives had little interest in taking part in any kind of pre-merger discussions with Microsoft. Instead, they launched wide-ranging conversations with possible white knights who could keep the company out of Microsoft's grasp. Yahoo! also adopted measures aimed at making a hostile takeover expensive, including promising executives two years' severance if they left Yahoo! "with good reason" within two years following an acquisition.

Microsoft and Yahoo! managers have met at least twice since February. Ballmer has described the talks as "limited" and "not substantial." Yahoo!'s Jerry Yang and Chairman Roy Bostock, in a retort Monday, said the conversations were "constructive" on topics "including integration and regulatory issues." (See: "Yahoo! To Microsoft: Go Away") But maybe Yahoo! executives were simply listening for clues about how to skirt antitrust hurdles if they chose to work with Google instead of the Redmond software giant.

The trial advertising relationship announced Wednesday signaled that Yahoo and Google could be close to finalizing such a relationship.

Here's how it is likely to work: Over the next two weeks, Web surfers based in the U.S. who plug a search term into Yahoo!'s search engine will, as they always do, see a series of ads running alongside those search results. The overwhelming majority of those ads will still be served up by Yahoo!'s in-house system. But "no more than 3%" of the advertisements will be generated by Google's AdSense for Search service.

What the two companies will learn from the test is how to set a value for either an allowance that Google might promise to Yahoo! or how to structure a revenue-sharing deal.

In either case, the test will involve swapping far more information about sensitive advertising mechanics and revenues than Yahoo! has been willing to share with Microsoft.

As recently as October, Yahoo!'s Yang was reluctant to even consider turning over Yahoo!'s ad systems to Google. In a conference call last October with analysts, Yang said: "We believe having a principal position in both search and display advertising is critical to creating ... long-term shareholder value." Last year, Yahoo! generated 87% of its total revenues from "marketing services," the combination of so-called "banner" advertisements as well as search advertising

In its annual report, Yahoo! lists Google as first among its competitors: "Google’s Internet search service directly competes with us for Affiliate and advertiser arrangements, both of which are key to our business and operating results." The report also lists Microsoft and AOL, as well as other publishers, as competitors.

Antitrust experts on Wednesday were quick to note that there are no regulatory problems with the carefully limited test outlined by Yahoo! and Google. "If Google controls Yahoo in some way, it would lessen competition in the market and that's what the laws are concerned about," notes Lande, professor of anti-trust law at University of Baltimore Law School. "But of course, that's not what they've announced."

If Yahoo! chose to let Google handle a bigger chunk of advertisements, regulators might take a closer look. "A search engine is searching and advertising, and if you merge advertising, that's very much like a merger," Lande suggests. "A joint venture is evaluated under the same anti-trust laws as a merger."

"Should there be moves to make this agreement permanent, we will examine it closely in the Antitrust Subcommittee to ensure that it does not harm competition," said U.S. Senator Herb Kohl (D-WI), chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee's Subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition Policy and Consumer Rights in a statement. "Following closely on the heels of Google's acquisition of DoubleClick, this Google-Yahoo alliance would represent even further consolidation in the internet advertising market," Kohl said.

Large Yahoo! shareholders are clearly weighing the price of the deal and how much it would help or hurt mixed portfolios that include both Microsoft and Yahoo! holdings. (See: "Ballmer's Secret Weapon")

David Hilal, associate director of research at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co., told Forbes.com that he was betting that Microsoft might still be tempted to raise its bid. That move could appease a few Yahoo! executives and some big institutional investors.

Wendy Tananka and Andy Greenberg contributed to this report.

See Also:

No More Mister Nice Guy

Stop Wasting Time, Microsoft Tells Yahoo!

The Yahoo! Deal

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Thursday, March 20, 2008

How To Buy Happiness


Forbes.com

Bad news for the luxury goods market: Spending money on tchochkes doesn't make you happier, but giving money away just might.

That conclusion, in a study published Thursday in the journal Science, flies in the face of what most people--and, certainly, advertisers--typically believe.

It's far easier to measure income than happiness. Even so, researchers around the world have reported that even though real income has surged around the globe, reported "happiness" levels have stayed relatively flat. That spurred Elizabeth W. Dunn, an assistant professor of psychology at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver to explore the ways that more money might lead to more happiness.

Working with graduate student Lara B. Aknin and Harvard Business School assistant professor Michael I. Norton, Dunn began by asking 632 Americans from across the U.S. to rate their general level of happiness, as well as to report their income, how much they spent on themselves and how much they donated to charity.

As researchers sifted through the numbers, they found that happiness didn't correlate with personal spending but, rather, with how much they gave away.

Not that anyone was giving very much away. Personal spending--for pleasure and out of necessity--topped donations by a factor of 10. The typical income of participants in the study was modest, roughly ranging from $20,000 to $50,000.

The researchers figured it was worth trying to test the hypothesis a bit further. They found a group of 16 people in the Boston area who were due to receive a profit-sharing bonus at work. A month before getting the bonus, the researchers asked them to rate their happiness. Then, six to eight weeks after the workers received their $3,000 to $8,000 bonuses, the researchers asked what they did with the money and how they felt.

Once again, giving away money seemed to nudge many people up the happiness scale, increasing the number of people who said that they were happy "most of the time" rather than just "some of the time," Dunn reports.

Then the researchers put their results to a test: On the Vancouver campus, they handed out sealed envelopes containing $5 or $20 to 46 people. They instructed half the people to spend the money on themselves--either on necessities or indulgences--and then told the other half to give the money away, all by 5 p.m.

Once again, those who gave the money away were happier by the end of the day--and just as happy whether they gave away $5 or $20.

Dunn said it was hard to speculate whether the results would have been different had she handed out thousands of dollars instead of $5 or $20.

So why don't people dig into their pockets a bit more? Dunn said most people figure they will be happier spending money on themselves.

Dunn's team asked a group of 100 university students what they thought would make them happier: spending or giving. No surprise here. Most figured they'd be happier spending the money on themselves--and that the more they'd spend, the cheerier they'd be. That's a double wrong in Dunn's book.

Dunn has been checking on the status of people's happiness for a number of years. She earned her doctorate in psychology in 2004 for an award-winning study that suggested when people are charming and pleasant--even if they're just putting on appearances--they genuinely feel better later.

She eventually refined that idea, documenting that a quick way long-time couples can bring the spark back into their romance is to pretend that they're strangers.

So next time you want to brighten your day, trying giving away that fiver instead of buying a latte--and do it with a smile.



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How To Buy Happiness

Forbes.com

From The Lab
How To Buy Happiness
Elizabeth Corcoran, 03.20.08, 7:00 PM ET

Bad news for the luxury goods market: Spending money on tchochkes doesn't make you happier, but giving money away just might.

That conclusion, in a study published Thursday in the journal Science, flies in the face of what most people--and, certainly, advertisers--typically believe.

It's far easier to measure income than happiness. Even so, researchers around the world have reported that even though real income has surged around the globe, reported "happiness" levels have stayed relatively flat. That spurred Elizabeth W. Dunn, an assistant professor of psychology at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver to explore the ways that more money might lead to more happiness.

Working with graduate student Lara B. Aknin and Harvard Business School assistant professor Michael I. Norton, Dunn began by asking 632 Americans from across the U.S. to rate their general level of happiness, as well as to report their income, how much they spent on themselves and how much they donated to charity.

As researchers sifted through the numbers, they found that happiness didn't correlate with personal spending but, rather, with how much they gave away.

Not that anyone was giving very much away. Personal spending--for pleasure and out of necessity--topped donations by a factor of 10. The typical income of participants in the study was modest, roughly ranging from $20,000 to $50,000.

The researchers figured it was worth trying to test the hypothesis a bit further. They found a group of 16 people in the Boston area who were due to receive a profit-sharing bonus at work. A month before getting the bonus, the researchers asked them to rate their happiness. Then, six to eight weeks after the workers received their $3,000 to $8,000 bonuses, the researchers asked what they did with the money and how they felt.

Once again, giving away money seemed to nudge many people up the happiness scale, increasing the number of people who said that they were happy "most of the time" rather than just "some of the time," Dunn reports.

Then the researchers put their results to a test: On the Vancouver campus, they handed out sealed envelopes containing $5 or $20 to 46 people. They instructed half the people to spend the money on themselves--either on necessities or indulgences--and then told the other half to give the money away, all by 5 p.m.

Once again, those who gave the money away were happier by the end of the day--and just as happy whether they gave away $5 or $20.

Dunn said it was hard to speculate whether the results would have been different had she handed out thousands of dollars instead of $5 or $20.

So why don't people dig into their pockets a bit more? Dunn said most people figure they will be happier spending money on themselves.

Dunn's team asked a group of 100 university students what they thought would make them happier: spending or giving. No surprise here. Most figured they'd be happier spending the money on themselves--and that the more they'd spend, the cheerier they'd be. That's a double wrong in Dunn's book.

Dunn has been checking on the status of people's happiness for a number of years. She earned her doctorate in psychology in 2004 for an award-winning study that suggested when people are charming and pleasant--even if they're just putting on appearances--they genuinely feel better later.

She eventually refined that idea, documenting that a quick way long-time couples can bring the spark back into their romance is to pretend that they're strangers.

So next time you want to brighten your day, trying giving away that fiver instead of buying a latte--and do it with a smile.






http://www.forbes.com/2008/03/20/money-buys-love-tech-science-cx_ec_0320love.html

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Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Turning Gold Dust Into Clean Air


Forbes.com

BURLINGAME, CALIF. -At age 82, William Miller might be excused for kicking back, playing with grandkids or simply puttering around. He's doing none of those things. Instead, Miller is leading a start-up with two big ambitions: to clean up diesel emissions and to spread a new approach to designing a key ingredient in countless chemical reactions, namely catalysts.

"I like to be an explorer. This is an exploration," declares Miller.

And that approach--the exploration of both a new technology and of the opportunity for using that nascent tool--is at the core of genuine innovation.

Over the course of his 53-year career, Miller has been a computer scientist, chairman of a major software maker, an adviser to both venture capitalists and government leaders, and a teacher. These days, he is chairman and co-founder of Nanostellar, a four-year-old, 22-person start-up in Redwood City, Calif. Miller is too savvy to use the hyperbolic language common to most start-up founders. But he exudes quiet confidence that Nanostellar has a shot at making a genuine difference, both in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and in changing commercial chemistry.

Nanostellar is developing novel chemical catalysts that promise big improvements over existing ingredients. The company's first product: fine powders of precious metals--gold, platinum and palladium--that when used to coat a filter for a diesel truck or car can reduce its toxic emissions by as much as 40% over existing catalytic converters. At Nanostellar's heart is a computer program that predicts how different compounds will work under specified conditions. Think of it as a design tool for chemists: "We have CAD-CAM tools for mechanical engineers, computer-aided design for circuit makers," says Pankaj Dhingra, Nanostellar's chief executive. "The impact our tool could have on the world of chemicals is absolutely humongous."

How does a septuagenarian wind up starting a company at the very forefront of new technology? By never retiring in the first place.

Back in 2003, Miller was juggling a collection of assignments, including advising groups at Stanford University, where he served as Provost, and a few company boards. He had always been an overachiever: He was the last hire of Stanford's famed Fredrick Terman and one of the first five advisers to venture group the Mayfield Fund, when it started in 1969. Over the years, he also chaired Borland Software, worked as chief executive of SRI International and hobnobbed with China's leaders, including Zhang Zemin and Li Peng. Colleagues often turned to him for advice--as did fellow Stanford professor KJ Cho.

Cho and longtime collaborator Jonathan Woo had been brainstorming about how to take to market what seemed like a promising tool--a way to design chemical catalysts on computers. Other fields were already using similar tools, including biochemists who analyze protein structures via computer models. Early this decade, Cho and Woo realized that the convergence of more powerful computers, better design algorithms and rapid advances in materials science--particularly in the excruciatingly small realm of nanomaterials--was finally promising to open up catalytic chemistry to computer modeling.

Miller's advice: Build a product, not just a tool. He also tested their ambitions with a well-honed set of questions: "Does the technology work? Can it scale? Is it robust? And who wants it?"

That last question, Miller says, can be a killer. "If the answer is 'Everyone,' then my next question is: 'Name one.' "

Together with Miller, Cho and Woo scrutinized what fields could be significantly improved with better catalysts. Scrubbing the toxic emissions created by burning carbon-based fuels was high on their list. But gasoline auto makers have poured billions into refining the catalytic converters used in consumer vehicles; utility plants, swaddled in regulations, are cautious adopters of new technology.

The diesel trucking industry, however, still used an expensive approach to reducing its emission problems, namely catalytic converters that rely on the highly reactive--and highly expensive--material platinum. The computer model that Cho and Woo developed suggested intriguing alternatives, including catalysts made of nanosize particles of gold and alloys of gold, palladium and platinum.

Since then, Miller and Woo have continued to build Nanostellar into a full-fledged company. Miller took the business lead, helping raise $26 million in venture capital from investors that include 3i Technology Partners, Khosla Ventures, Monitor Ventures and others. He helped hire a chief executive for Nanostellar and other key managers. "It's more acceptable now to tell company founders they can't run a company," he says wryly. Woo is chief technology officer.

Nanostellar has developed three variants of catalysts using gold, platinum and palladium. Its work is winning technical accolades: Late last year, the start-up was picked as one of 39 "technology pioneers" for 2008 by the World Economic Forum--a honor that has in past years gone to the likes of Google and Napster.

Customers are emerging, too--even though Miller ruefully says that business has taken a bit longer to develop than he and his co-founders had originally hoped.

In conjunction with a manufacturing partner based in Pennsylvania, Nanostellar sells powders that are used to coat the honeycomb-like filters used in diesel vehicles. One European customer is using its powder to improve emissions in existing vehicles; a European car maker is planning to incorporate Nanostellar's powder in a new fleet of diesel-based cars.

"Technically, every class of engine that runs differently should have a different catalyst," Miller observes. A UPS truck engine, for instance, is different from the machine driving an 18-wheeler. How much time an engine runs "cold" changes its emissions, too, he adds.

Miller remains cheerfully upbeat about how Nanostellar's technology can improve the world. And with any luck, this won't be his last venture. "Wait until I tell you about my next idea for a start-up," he quips.


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Monday, March 17, 2008

Bear Stearns' Advice To Microsoft

Forbes.com

BURLINGAME, CALIF. ---Uh oh! Guess who has been one of the senior advisers to Microsoft executives on its proposed takeover of Yahoo!, quietly counseling on how to do such a big deal?

That would be Bear Stearns Chief Executive Alan Schwartz.

As Silicon Valley wakes up on Monday and assesses the fallout from the Bear Stearns fiasco, no one will be thinking through the implications more carefully than executives in Redmond, Washington.

Bear Stearns will go down in history as a victim of its own aggressive borrowing. That legacy might well give pause to Microsoft's chief executive, Steve Ballmer. Yes, he wants to pummel Google and snatch some of the advertising dollars that he feels should flow to the north instead.

But, particularly in a fragile economy, the risks of undertaking a $44.6 billion (give or take) takeover could be staggering, even to a company with Microsoft's heft.

For all its aggressive sales tactics, Microsoft has a long history of fiscal caution. The Yahoo! deal marks the first time the software giant has planned to borrow cash to complete a deal. Co-founder Bill Gates can't be thrilled with watching Ballmer drain the company's cash. He didn't get so rich by buying at the top of the market.

Yahoo! will close its first quarter of 2008 on March 31--and will report the results in late April. Yahoo! might have inadvertently done Microsoft a favor recently by extending the date for nominating candidates to its board of directors until a time 10 days after Yahoo! announces the date of its next annual meeting. That gives Yahoo!--and now Microsoft--a bit more time to watch the markets before trying to close a deal.

It was, after all, Wall Street's reaction to the result from Yahoo!'s last quarter, announced January 29, that drove down the company shares to a 52-week intraday trading low of $18.58 on January 30. Microsoft took advantage of what looked like a bargain at the time and offered a $31 a share--or $44.6 billion--in a half-cash, half-stock deal for Yahoo!.

After briefly trading a bit above $30, Yahoo!'s stock has gone back to sagging. It closed on Friday at $26.71.

Other significant Bear Stearns investment banking clients in 2007 included General Motors and its GMAC financing group, the Walt Disney Co. and the Blackstone Group's Real Estate Opportunity Fund. It also advised Pfizer on the sale of its consumer health care business to Johnson & Johnson and advised Symbol Technologies on its acquisition by Motorola.




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Monday, February 11, 2008

Yahoo!'s Unlikely Candidate For Sugar Daddy

Forbes.com

BURLINGAME, CALIF. -Yahoo! needs a sugar daddy--could it be tired old AOL?

This weekend, word leaked that Yahoo! was planning to send Microsoft a "Dear John" letter on Monday formally rejecting the software giant's offer of $31 a share as too cheap.

Chief Executive Jerry Yang wants to keep Yahoo! independent and has spurned approaches in the past. But Yahoo! is in play now and clearly needs a partner. According to The Times newspaper of London, Yahoo! is exploring a deal with AOL, the beleaguered Internet division of Time Warner.

Perhaps it's a strategy aimed simply at driving up readership on Yahoo!'s news channels. Yahoo!'s twists and turns are becoming the financial version of a soap opera.

Last week, Time Warner's new chief executive, Jeffrey L. Bewkes, said he planned to split off AOL's Internet access operations from its Web site and online advertising business. The Internet access business is profitable--but shrinking. Overall, operating income for AOL for the past quarter (excluding one-time events) was essentially flat. That would hardly suggest that AOL's Web business is a money machine.

Although both Yahoo! and AOL command healthy Web traffic, both have had a hard time turning those eyeballs into profits. Combining any portion of AOL with Yahoo! might be a great deal for Time Warner, but it's hard to see how it helps Yahoo!

Pundits may spin out stories of how the two will together have a hefty chunk of e-mail and Internet messaging, but neither of those businesses pulls in anything like the riches of search advertising.

Meanwhile, in Silicon Valley, the first wave of Yahoo! employees will get pink slips this week. Those job cuts--about 1,000 in all--were first mentioned when Yang released the company's fourth-quarter results in late January and predicted slower growth ahead. More layoffs are likely in the future, particularly if Yahoo! continues to flirt with alliances with businesses that have had an even tougher time making ends meet than it has.

A Yahoo-AOL alliance makes sense for only one organization: Google. It leaves Google free to dominate keyword search, with only a few stray ghosts of competitors to keep away the anti-trust regulators. It won't matter whether Google's search engine is significantly better than competitors. Advertisers will continue to flock to it because of its towering presence.

Right now, casual searchers won't see tremendous differences in the results offered by Google, Yahoo! and Microsoft's search engines. For instance, plug "ski in Tahoe" into those three search engines and the results are mighty similar. The first result to pop up at the top for all three is identical: "skilaketahoe.com." Of the 10 search results offered by each site, seven to eight of those listings show up on at least two of the other search sites. Google could boast three "unique" results, but two are for specific resorts. Both Microsoft and Yahoo! dug up unique directories of Tahoe skiing linked to a wide array of services.

Google did a fine job of pulling up relevant ads: it lists eight ads for travel agencies and booking services to help you go skiing. Microsoft's search results include a handy snow report--but among its eight ads is one for a Chevy Tahoe truck (no thanks) and a generic ad for Yahoo! Travel. Yahoo! should take the prize for putting up the most ads: it offered a full, relevant dozen.

But who's to know? In December, Google carried out 66% of U.S.-based Internet searches; Yahoo captured 21% and Microsoft did a bit more than 5%, according to market analysis firm Hitwise. (See: "Climbing The Ad Web Landscape") Familiarity breeds steady habits: Why, with results that are so similar, would anyone switch to a different search engine?

Microsoft Chief Executive Steve Ballmer said as much to The Wall Street Journal.

"The reason why Google is a market leader is not because they have [more] products," Ballmer said. "They're the leader because they're the leader in one product area, called search."

Yahoo! still commands tremendous Web traffic--just not the sort of traffic that pays the bills.

It has a hidden strength in display advertising: According to comScore, Yahoo! accounted for close to 19% of all the display advertising seen by U.S. users in November, followed by Microsoft at 6.7% and then Google at 1%.

Some Internet pundits contend that display advertising will eventually become more valuable than keyword search. Keyword advertising assumes that consumers are only searching the Internet to buy a product. As consumers grow more comfortable using the Internet to provide news and general information, an elite category of "brand building" advertising will arise, just as it has on television and in glossy magazines. By that logic, Yahoo! could have valuable properties--but it will take time.

Would a deal with AOL provide enough of a cushion to let Yahoo! grow in banner advertising?

Microsoft's Ballmer may not give up this fight easily. He knows his rival is Google. Microsoft made a bid for DoubleClick only to watch Google scoop up the company instead. The loss still rankles in Redmond.

Yet if negotiations become protracted and ugly, Yahoo! will lose talent, Wall Street will punish Yahoo! and Microsoft, and more pink slips will follow. The only winner in this scenario, again, will be Google.

--Wendy Tanaka contributed to this report

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Monday, February 04, 2008

Google Plays The Anti-Competitive Card

Forbes.com


Burlingame -Since about late December, more people have been searching on Google for "Steve Ballmer" than they have for "Eric Schmidt."

Don't count on that continuing.

On Sunday, news began to leak out that Schmidt, Google's chief executive, had put in a call to the doubtlessly miserable Jerry Yang of Yahoo! offering his help in warding off the barbarian at the gate--namely Steve Ballmer of Microsoft.

Google had also issued on Sunday a suitably pious press release from its general counsel: "The openness of the Internet is what made Google--and Yahoo!--possible. ... So Microsoft's hostile bid for Yahoo! raises troubling questions. This is about more than simply a financial transaction, one company taking over another. It's about preserving the underlying principles of the Internet: openness and innovation."

Make no mistake: This isn't about the Internet. It's hardly about Yahoo!. Instead, Yahoo! has become a football in an epic battle between Microsoft and Google--and, between their team captains, Ballmer and Schmidt.

Both Google and Microsoft will try to claim the moral high ground by asserting that their actions will enhance competition in the Internet industry. Like seasoned politicians, no two other high-tech titans have had more experience debating "competitiveness" than this pair.

And both have tasted the sweetness of monopoly profits--and crave more.

First a bit of history: Both Yahoo! and Google were founded during the height of Microsoft's monopoly power--Yahoo in 1994, Google in 1998. Hatred of Microsoft, particularly in Silicon Valley, ran deep during those years. The Redmond software giant commanded fat margins for its operating system and office productivity software.

Microsoft Co-Founder Bill Gates was savvy enough to know even then that Microsoft was most vulnerable to what it didn't expect. He used to like to joke that Microsoft's toughest competitor was probably some tiny start-up no one had ever heard of.

Silicon Valley pundits, by contrast, warned darkly that the days of innovation were over. Microsoft's shadow was enough to frighten entrepreneurs away from whole areas of software. Just look, they charged, at the fact that no company dared try to build an operating system or even a new word processor.

Leading many of those assertions was Scott McNealy at Sun Microsystems, ably supported by his chief technology officer, Eric Schmidt. In April 1997, Schmidt left Sun to become chief executive at Novell, a network software company that had been seriously bruised by its battles with Microsoft.

Much of the personal animosity against Microsoft was directed against Bill Gates. But Microsoft also had a relentlessly aggressive sales force, encouraged to push for the best price and the most favorable contract terms. The tone of that sales force was set by the company's No. 1 salesman, Ballmer.

Schmidt, whose technological specialty was networking, tried unsuccessfully to rekindle Novell's fortunes around its directory services. The effort petered out. Schmidt jumped to Google in 2001.

Had Microsoft truly "chilled" competition? Commercial efforts to build conventional operating systems certainly had poor results. Sun continued to develop its operating system, Solaris. Apart from Apple's operating system, which limped through the mid 1990s, no other significant operating system for PCs emerged. Microsoft squashed enthusiasm for one pen-based operating system called Go. Another, Be, fizzled.

Microsoft then poured its energy into battling Internet browser pioneer, Netscape Communications, ultimately to the detriment of both. Netscape closed up shop and sold the remnants to AOL. Microsoft wound up tied up in antitrust litigation and penalties that continue still.

Outside the areas that Microsoft dominated, innovation flourished.

Gates was ultimately right: His company overlooked the importance of the emergence of the open source (not-for-profit) operating system, Linux. Palm Computing came out with an operating system for handhelds--leaving Microsoft to scramble in its dust to develop its own mobile operating system. And most critically, even after Gates announced that Microsoft was set on understanding the Internet, the packaged software company couldn't spot the need for search engines for sifting through all the data--leaving a big opening for what became Google.

Thank heavens none of those companies thought it would be a good idea to simply build another PC operating system.

Now the tables are oddly reversed: Google commands 75% of search-ad revenues worldwide. It carried out more than 65% of all the Internet searches done in the U.S. during the first four weeks of January, according to market research firm Hitwise. Combining Yahoo! Search and MSN Search would amount to 28%.

Both Microsoft and Google, as well as other industry titans, have flirted with Yahoo! for years. Yahoo! turned out to be its own most devastating competitor: It tried to doll itself up as a Hollywood company. It was slow to build an effective back-end system to monetize advertising. Yahoo! drifted.

Among the deals that have been considered in the past: breaking Yahoo! into chunks, including selling its search advertising business to Google.

That move would leave Microsoft even further out of the online ad business.

Ballmer--the salesman and long-time basketball fanatic--pulled the best lever he saw by offering a sizable premium over Yahoo's! current--and dwindling--share price. Expect to hear him bang the table for a fast decision from the company's board.

Schmidt, who knows Ballmer and Washington, D.C., better than any other high-tech executive, will play a different hand. To buy time, he has set his general counsel beating out the familiar rhythm of "anti-competitive" charges. He will try to round up allies. They will white board a dozen ways to slice and dice Yahoo! to keep it out of Microsoft's hands. Just as Microsoft dragged Google through anti-competitive hearings in Washington, D.C., over the search engine's proposed acquisition of ad company DoubleClick, so, too, will Google call in all its favors and demand that the antitrust busters scrutinize this deal. Schmidt's Washington ties run deep: He currently sits on Apple's board alongside former Vice President Gore.

Both Schmidt and Ballmer know it's easier to delay a multibillion-dollar deal than it is to speed it up. Expect to see this contest go into overtime.


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